The Decline and Rise of Democracy

1. Early Democracy: A Natural, Widespread Human Phenomenon

If we see seeking consent as a basic ingredient of democracy, then we can say that democracy itself occurs naturally among humans, even if it is far from inevitable.

Beyond the Greek narrative. The conventional story of democracy originating in ancient Greece overlooks the independent development of democratic practices in diverse societies across the globe. Examples include the Huron of North America, the Tlaxcala of Mesoamerica, and various communities in ancient Mesopotamia, India, and precolonial Africa. These instances suggest that democracy, defined as seeking consent from the governed, arises organically in human societies.

Consent as a core ingredient. Early democracy thrived where rulers needed cooperation and information from their people. This necessity led to the formation of councils and assemblies where members could voice their consent or opposition. Even without formal veto power, these bodies wielded influence through their knowledge and ability to withhold cooperation.

Diversity in early forms. While early democracy was widespread, it manifested in various forms. Some societies featured broad participation, while others involved more elite gatherings. Regardless of the level of participation, these systems shared the fundamental characteristic of requiring rulers to seek consent from those they governed.

2. State Weakness: Fertile Ground for Early Democracy

Early democracy emerged when rulers needed consent and cooperation from their people because they could not govern on their own.

The weak state advantage. Early democracy flourished in environments where rulers lacked the capacity to govern unilaterally. This weakness stemmed from factors such as uncertainty about production, ease of exit for the populace, and a greater need for the people's resources than vice versa. In such contexts, rulers were more likely to accept collaborative governance.

Factors fostering state weakness:

• Small-scale settings: Facilitated regular participation in councils and assemblies.
• Lack of knowledge: Rulers lacked knowledge of what people were producing, incentivizing power-sharing for better information.
• Exit options: When people could easily move to new locations, rulers were compelled to govern more consensually.

The autocratic alternative. The alternative to early democracy was autocracy, often supported by the construction of a state bureaucracy. Autocrats relied on subordinates they controlled to gather information and enforce decisions, rather than seeking consent from independent councils.

3. Technology's Double-Edged Sword: Undermining and Enabling Democracy

The paradox of civilization’s advance was that it made autocracy function more effectively.

Civilization's paradox. While technological advancements often improve living standards, they can also undermine early democracy. Technologies like writing, mapping, and intensive agriculture made it easier for rulers to monitor production and control populations, reducing their reliance on consensual governance.

Specific technologies and their impact:

• Writing: Facilitated communication and record-keeping for bureaucracies.
• Soil mapping: Enabled rulers to assess and tax agricultural production more effectively.
• Intensive agriculture: Made landscapes more legible and production more predictable for outsiders.

Europe's initial backwardness. Ironically, Europe's initial technological backwardness played a role in preserving early democracy. European rulers lacked the tools and knowledge to build strong bureaucracies, forcing them to rely on assemblies and councils.

4. Europe's Unique Path: From Weakness to Modern Representation

Ironically, it was Europe’s backwardness that laid the ground for the rise of modern democracy.

Europe's divergence. Unlike China and the Middle East, early democracy persisted and evolved in Europe, eventually leading to modern democracy. This unique trajectory was shaped by several factors, including the weakness of European rulers and the slow progress of science and civilization.

Key developments in Europe:

• Survival of early democracy: Early democracy continued to thrive rather than being supplanted by autocratic rule.
• Scaling up democracy: Europeans eventually succeeded in scaling up the practice of early democracy to societies covering large territories.
• Evolution to modern democracy: Early democracy evolved into modern democracy through a series of steps, including the development of political representation and universal adult suffrage.

The irony of weakness. European rulers' long-term weakness, stemming from a lack of state bureaucracies and technologies for monitoring production, laid the groundwork for the rise of modern democracy.

5. China's Bureaucratic Alternative: Efficiency and Control

The course of Chinese political development resembles the European one stood on its head.

Early autocratic governance. In contrast to Europe, China's political development followed an autocratic path from an early date. The Shang dynasty established a system of strict inheritance rules and mobilized large military forces, laying the foundation for centralized control.

Factors favoring autocracy in China:

• Natural environment: The Loess Plateau provided an excellent basis for early agriculture, leading to a more compact pattern of settlement.
• Precocious bureaucracy: The early development of a state bureaucracy, particularly during the Western Zhou dynasty, provided rulers with the means to govern without relying on societal networks.
• Imperial examination system: The perfection of an imperial examination system during the Tang and Song dynasties provided rulers with a means of bureaucratic recruitment that did not depend on societal networks outside of their control.

A stable alternative. Autocracy in China proved to be a very stable form of political development. The state got there first, and this made it difficult for democracy to emerge.

6. Islam's Lost Democracy: A Tale of Inherited Power

It was the swift inheritance of a preexisting state—not Islam—that led to the demise of early democracy in the Middle East.

Early democracy in Arabia. Early democracy prevailed in Arabia during the pre-Islamic period, with rulers governing through councils and lacking state bureaucracies or permanent military forces. This system was sustained by nomadic societies where people could easily move elsewhere if dissatisfied.

The Umayyad shift. The swift expansion of Islam led to the conquest of more densely populated lands with settled agriculture and existing state structures. The Islamic conquerors inherited a centralized bureaucracy from the Sasanian Empire, enabling them to govern autocratically with little need for consultation.

The role of contingency. The demise of early democracy in the Middle East was not inevitable. Had the Islamic expansion occurred earlier, before the Sasanian reforms, the outcome might have been different.

7. Modern Democracy's Fragility: Participation and Trust

In comparative terms modern democracy has existed for only a brief time.

A recent experiment. Modern democracy, characterized by competitive elections and universal suffrage, is a relatively recent invention compared to early democracy. Its success is not guaranteed, and it faces several potential fracture points.

Fracture points of modern democracy:

• Episodic participation: Citizens participate primarily through voting, leading to potential distrust and disengagement.
• Coexistence with bureaucracy: The state bureaucracy manages day-to-day affairs, potentially undermining the belief that the people are governing themselves.

The need for continual investment. To sustain modern democracy, societies must continually invest in citizen engagement and address the potential for distrust and disengagement.

8. The American Experiment: A Distant State and Citizen Engagement

The Constitution of 1787 established democratic rule across a large territory, much larger than was common for early democracies, and this was paired with a form of participation that was broad but also episodic.

A large and distant state. The U.S. Constitution established democratic rule across a vast territory, pairing broad but episodic participation with a strong central state. This created a unique set of challenges for maintaining citizen engagement and trust.

Madison's warning. James Madison recognized the need for concrete investments to ensure that the public could inform itself about government in a large republic. He supported efforts to subsidize the distribution of newspapers.

The importance of citizen engagement. In a large democracy, the idea that the public can accurately inform itself and trust government cannot be taken for granted. Continual investments in citizen engagement are essential for addressing this challenge.

9. Economic Development: A Complicated Relationship with Democracy

Even after English monarchs had agreed to the Magna Carta, they were forced to settle with a vastly lower rate of taxation than were Chinese emperors or Muslim caliphs.

No guarantee of democracy. The conventional wisdom that economic development leads to democracy is not fully supported by historical evidence. Early democracy thrived in Europe despite its relative poverty compared to regions like China and the Middle East.

Early democracy and autocracy. Early democracy and autocracy each had strengths and weaknesses when it came to economic development. Early democracy fostered decentralized power and property rights protection, while autocracy facilitated wider markets and innovation diffusion.

Modern democracy's potential. Modern democracy has the potential to combine the advantages of both systems, with constrained leaders and large national markets. However, the history of the United States suggests that barriers to entry and monopoly power can still emerge.

10. The Future of Democracy: Adaptation and Resilience

Through the practice of early democracy, members of society gain a habit of acting collectively and there is an opportunity for rulers and people to resist autocracy and instead jointly build a state.

Learning from history. Early democracy existed for thousands of years, demonstrating its robustness. Modern democracy is a more recent experiment, and its future depends on understanding the lessons of history.

Lessons for new democracies:

• Democratic governance comes naturally to humans under certain conditions.
• Democratization is more likely to survive when the initial power of the central state is weak.
• Institutions of electoral accountability can be layered over preexisting institutions of early democracy.

The future of American democracy. The survival of democracy in the United States depends on continued investments to keep citizens connected with a distant state and on preserving a tradition of collective governance that can resist autocratic encroachment.

Last updated: March 6, 2025