Mental Models

1. Mental Models: Your Latticework for Better Thinking

You've got to have models in your head. And you've got to array your experience—both vicarious and direct—on this latticework of models.

Mental models are blueprints for understanding the world and making better decisions. They act as filters, helping you focus on important elements and providing predictable outcomes. By developing a latticework of mental models from various disciplines, you can:

• Interpret information correctly
• Understand context and background
• Make optimal decisions

Examples of mental models include:

• Recipes in cooking
• Flavor profiles for chefs
• Conventional food pairings
• Basic stock ingredients

Having multiple models challenges each perspective, producing a more unified overview. This prevents you from torturing reality to fit a limited set of models, as Munger warns against being "the man with only a hammer."

2. Prioritize Important Tasks Over Urgent Ones

Everything, seemingly, is an emergency to be handled as soon as humanly possible, and horrible consequences will follow if you don't personally act.

The Eisenhower Matrix helps distinguish between urgent and important tasks. Important tasks contribute directly to your short-term or long-term goals, while urgent tasks simply demand immediacy, often coming from others. To use this mental model:

1. Identify truly important tasks
2. Recognize which tasks only appear urgent
3. Prioritize important tasks, even if they're not urgent
4. Delegate or eliminate urgent but unimportant tasks

This approach helps you focus on what truly matters, avoiding the trap of constantly reacting to urgency at the expense of long-term progress.

3. Visualize All Dominoes: Second-Order Thinking

Small decisions one might make could result in effects down the road they didn't foresee, resulting in a sort of butterfly effect.

Second-order thinking involves considering the long-term consequences of your decisions. Instead of focusing only on immediate outcomes, visualize all the potential "dominoes" that could fall as a result of your choice. This mental model helps you:

• Anticipate unintended consequences
• Make more informed decisions
• Avoid short-sighted choices

To practice second-order thinking, ask yourself:

• What are the potential long-term effects?
• How might this decision impact others?
• What could go wrong, and how severe would those consequences be?

By consistently applying this approach, you'll make better decisions and avoid many of the pitfalls that come from narrow, first-order thinking.

4. Make Reversible Decisions for Faster Progress

Action will almost always tell you more than analysis before the fact.

Embrace reversible decisions to overcome analysis paralysis and make faster progress. Many decisions are not set in stone and can be changed if needed. By recognizing which decisions are reversible, you can:

• Take action more quickly
• Gain valuable real-world information
• Adjust course based on new data

To apply this mental model:

1. Identify which decisions are reversible
2. Make those decisions quickly, with less analysis
3. Learn from the results and iterate as needed

Remember, reversing a decision is not going back on your word; it's adjusting based on new information. This approach allows you to move forward faster and learn more effectively than those stuck in endless analysis.

5. Seek "Satisfiction" Instead of Perfection

Satisfiction is a mixture of satisfy and suffice, and it is aiming to make decisions that are good enough, adequate, and serve their purpose.

Satisficing, not maximizing, is often the key to better decision-making and productivity. Instead of endlessly seeking the perfect option, aim for choices that are good enough to meet your needs. This mental model helps you:

• Make decisions more quickly
• Avoid analysis paralysis
• Reduce stress and anxiety

To practice satisficing:

1. Define your minimum acceptable criteria
2. Choose the first option that meets those criteria
3. Move on without second-guessing or continuing to search

Remember, perfectionism often leads to diminishing returns and wasted effort. By embracing "satisfiction," you'll make progress more consistently and efficiently.

6. Stay Within 40-70% Information for Decision-Making

Make a decision with no less than 40% of the information you need but no more than 70%.

Colin Powell's 40-70 Rule provides a framework for balancing information-gathering with action. This mental model suggests that you should have between 40% and 70% of the information you need before making a decision. Here's why:

• Less than 40%: You're essentially guessing
• More than 70%: You're wasting time and may miss opportunities

To apply this rule:

1. Estimate how much information you currently have
2. If it's between 40-70%, make your decision
3. If it's less than 40%, gather more data
4. If it's more than 70%, stop researching and decide

This approach helps you strike a balance between being informed and being paralyzed by analysis, leading to faster, more effective decision-making.

7. Minimize Regret with the 80-Year-Old Test

Project yourself to age 80.

Jeff Bezos' Regret Minimization Framework helps you make decisions by considering their long-term impact on your life satisfaction. To use this mental model:

1. Imagine yourself at age 80
2. Consider whether you'll regret taking (or not taking) a particular action
3. Make your decision based on minimizing future regret

This approach helps you:

• Focus on what truly matters in the long run
• Overcome short-term fears or hesitations
• Make decisions aligned with your life goals and values

By consistently applying this framework, you'll make choices that lead to a more fulfilling life with fewer regrets.

8. Ignore "Black Swans" and Look for Equilibrium

Even if a big event or happening shakes up our immediate surroundings, it shouldn't be automatically used to assume a "new reality."

Avoid overreacting to outliers by recognizing black swan events and looking for equilibrium points. Black swans are rare, unpredictable events with significant impact. However, they shouldn't drastically change your overall approach. Instead:

1. Identify true black swan events
2. Recognize their short-term impact
3. Look for the return to equilibrium or the mean

To apply this mental model:

• Don't make sweeping changes based on rare events
• Wait for patterns to emerge before drawing conclusions
• Focus on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations

By maintaining this perspective, you'll avoid knee-jerk reactions and make more stable, informed decisions over time.

9. Apply Bayes' Theorem for Better Predictions

Bayes' Theorem is powerful because it allows us to take actually quantify uncertainty and certainty with just a small number of variables.

Use Bayesian thinking to make more accurate predictions and update your beliefs based on new evidence. Bayes' Theorem provides a framework for calculating probabilities based on prior knowledge and new information. To apply this mental model:

1. Start with a prior probability (your initial belief)
2. Gather new evidence
3. Calculate the likelihood of the evidence given your belief
4. Update your belief based on the new information

Benefits of Bayesian thinking:

• More accurate predictions over time
• Ability to quantify uncertainty
• Continuous improvement of your understanding

By consistently applying Bayes' Theorem, you'll make better decisions and predictions in various aspects of life.

10. Think Like Darwin: Embrace Contradictory Evidence

Darwin completely immersed himself in evidence or explanations that went against his findings because he was aware that the human mind is inclined to dispose of those contrary views.

Adopt Darwin's approach to seeking truth by actively seeking out and considering evidence that contradicts your beliefs. This mental model helps you:

• Overcome confirmation bias
• Develop more robust theories and ideas
• Make better-informed decisions

To think like Darwin:

1. Actively seek out contradictory evidence
2. Give equal attention to opposing viewpoints
3. Be willing to change your mind based on new information
4. Question your own assumptions and biases

By embracing this approach, you'll develop a more accurate understanding of the world and make better decisions based on a fuller picture of reality.

11. Avoid Direct Goals: Use Inverse Thinking

Inversion helps you uncover your hidden beliefs and allows you to avoid what you ultimately don't want.

Inverse thinking can be a powerful tool for problem-solving and goal-setting. Instead of focusing solely on what you want to achieve, consider what you want to avoid. This approach can help you:

• Identify potential obstacles
• Uncover hidden assumptions
• Find creative solutions

To apply inverse thinking:

1. Define your goal
2. List what would cause failure or unhappiness
3. Create strategies to avoid those negative outcomes

Examples:

• Instead of asking how to be successful, ask how to avoid failure
• Rather than focusing on productivity, identify what causes distraction

By approaching problems from this inverse perspective, you often gain new insights and develop more robust strategies for success.

12. Focus on the Vital Few: The Pareto Principle

80% of the results you want out of a task will be produced by 20% of your activities and efforts directed toward it.

The Pareto Principle, also known as the 80/20 rule, suggests that a small portion of your efforts often produces the majority of your results. Applying this mental model can help you:

• Prioritize effectively
• Increase efficiency
• Focus on high-impact activities

To use the Pareto Principle:

1. Identify the key 20% of activities that produce 80% of your results
2. Focus your time and resources on those vital few activities
3. Minimize or eliminate low-impact tasks

Examples of the 80/20 rule:

• 20% of customers generate 80% of revenue
• 20% of your wardrobe gets 80% of the wear
• 20% of your study time produces 80% of your learning

By consistently applying the Pareto Principle, you'll achieve more with less effort and make better use of your time and resources.

Last updated: February 27, 2025