Has the West Lost It?

1. The West's Dominance Is Ending, Adapt or Be Lost

In the early twenty-first century, history has turned a corner, perhaps the most significant corner humanity has ever turned – yet the West refuses to accept or adapt to this new historical era.

Historical Aberration. For 1800 years, China and India were the world's largest economies. Western dominance is a recent, temporary blip. The West's share of the global economy is shrinking as other societies emulate Western practices. Western leaders must acknowledge this shift and adapt to a world they can no longer dominate.

Machiavellian Wisdom. Machiavelli emphasized adapting to the "spirit of the times." The West must adjust to the end of its dominance. Western populations feel these changes in job markets, explaining events like Trump and Brexit. Western leaders should show charts illustrating China and India's economic resurgence.

New Opportunities. The global economic pie is growing. The West can hitch its wagon to the growth of the Rest, but this requires a shrewd recalculation of the global economic order. The West needs a dose of Machiavellian realism to navigate this new era.

2. Western Wisdom Has Fueled Global Progress

The biggest gift the West gave the Rest was the power of reasoning.

Gift of Reasoning. The West's greatest contribution is the power of reasoning, spread through science, technology, and the scientific method. This has led to solutions for problems like floods, famines, and poverty. Individuals also began to understand how reasoning could improve their personal sense of well-being.

Silent Revolutions. Western reasoning triggered three silent revolutions:

• Political: From feudalism to accountability of rulers to the people.
• Psychological: From fatalism to belief in personal agency.
• Governance: From dysfunctional to functional governance focused on improving lives.

Global Learning. Africans and Latin Americans are learning from Asian success stories, inspired by Western ideas. Countries like Kenya and Ethiopia are emulating development models from Singapore and South Korea. The World Bank fosters knowledge exchange between Latin America and Asia.

3. Western Wars Have Been Self-Destructive

These wars, and the rejuvenation of non-Western societies using Western best practices, explain the political liberation of the rest of the world from Western domination in the second half of the twentieth century.

Suicidal Wars. The two World Wars weakened the West and allowed non-Western societies to rejuvenate using Western practices. This led to the political liberation of the Rest from Western domination. The West either didn't notice or didn't care.

Triumphalism and Blindness. The end of the Cold War led to Western triumphalism, blinding the West to the rise of China and India. Fukuyama's "End of History?" essay reinforced complacency. The West was distracted by 9/11 and made the disastrous decision to invade Iraq.

China's Rise. China's entry into the WTO in 2001 was historically consequential, leading to job losses in the West. This contributed to Trump and Brexit. Western elites failed to explain these changes or mitigate the damage.

4. Western Elites Are Blind to Global Shifts

Western elites, who remain the most globally influential elites, believe that they understand the world better than anyone else.

Elite Disconnect. Western elites believe they understand the world better than anyone else, but they are distrusted by their masses. These elites need to understand the new era and formulate pragmatic policy responses. The world of 2050 will be vastly different from the world of 1950.

Shifting Economic Power. The G7's share of global GDP is shrinking, while the E7's share is rising. PricewaterhouseCoopers forecasts that by 2050, the G7 share will slide to 20%, and the E7's will rise to almost 50%. No Western leader has spoken honestly about these changes.

Progress in Troubled Countries. Even troubled countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh are making progress. Pakistan experienced a "staggering fall" in poverty from 2002 to 2014. Bangladesh can reach "middle income" status by 2021.

5. The World Is Experiencing Unprecedented Progress

It’s the biggest truth of our times: in objective terms, the human condition has never been better.

Happier Humanity. The world is on the verge of utopia, with poverty declining, violence decreasing, and literacy increasing. We may be on the verge of utopia. We have become addicted to "news," focusing on events, not trends.

Global Middle Class. The global middle class is exploding, from 1.8 billion in 2009 to 4.9 billion by 2030. This represents the elimination of human suffering and an increase in human happiness. Economic growth leads to better healthcare, education, and living standards.

Information Revolution. The information revolution is democratizing access to education and information. Smartphones are becoming ubiquitous, connecting people to the global economy. Leapfrog technology is a critical ingredient in improving the human condition.

6. The West Needs a New Grand Strategy: Minimalist, Multilateral, Machiavellian

Against this backdrop of a better-educated and more rational global community that will no longer wear Western meddling and condescension, the time has come for the West to abandon many of its short-sighted and self-destructive policies and pursue a completely new strategy towards the rest of the world.

The 3M Strategy. The West needs a new grand strategy based on three principles:

• Minimalist: Reduce intervention in world affairs.
• Multilateral: Strengthen global institutions and processes.
• Machiavellian: Deploy strategic cunning to protect long-term interests.

Minimalist Approach. The West needs to achieve a new consensus on its role in world history. Many parts of the world, especially Asia and Africa, would welcome a more restrained Western role. The West needs to pose to itself a delicate and potentially explosive question: is there any correlation between the rise of Western bombing of Islamic societies and the rise of terrorist incidents in the West?

Multilateral Approach. The West needs to listen to the majority opinions of humanity. The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) is a global parliament. The West should strengthen, not weaken, the UN.

7. Europe and America Face Diverging Challenges

To put it bluntly, there may have been a time (perhaps at the end of the Cold War) when 12 per cent of the world’s population could afford to impose demands on China (20 per cent of the world’s population), anger the Islamic world (20 per cent of the world’s population), ignore the demographic explosion in Africa (15 per cent of the world’s population) and humiliate Russia (the world’s second largest nuclear power).

Diverging Interests. The primary strategic challenge for America is China. For Europe, it is the Islamic world at its doorstep. American and European interests have diverged.

Europe's Challenge. Europe's primary threat is spillover instability from the Islamic world. Europe should work with China to build up North Africa. The Europeans also need better leadership.

America's Challenge. America should focus on its primary challenge: China. The Islamic world is a secondary challenge. America should make peace with the Islamic world, not rile it.

8. A More Cunning West Can Create a Better World

All these recommendations are based on a fundamental assumption that Western minds need to understand that, for over two centuries, they have been aggressive and interventionist.

Strategic Humility. The West needs to be prudent and non-interventionist. This will benefit the world and Western populations. A less adversarial relationship between the West and the Rest will help to dispel the clouds of pessimism that now envelop Western societies.

Rules-Based Order. As Western power recedes, the West should calculate that it is in its best interests to have a stronger rules-based order. One way to do this is to strengthen, not weaken, the UNSC. The best way to strengthen the credibility of the UNSC is for the UK to give up its seat to India and for France to share its seat with the EU.

Clinton's Cunning Advice. Bill Clinton advised Americans to prepare for a world where America is no longer number one. The best outcome would be a number one power (namely, China) that respects "rules and partnerships and habits of behaviour" that America could live with.

Last updated: March 10, 2025