Decline and Fall

1. Empires are Wealth Pumps, Not Benevolent Rulers

An empire is an arrangement among nations, backed and usually imposed by military force, which extracts wealth from a periphery of subject nations and concentrates it in the imperial core.

Wealth extraction, not altruism. Empires are fundamentally systems designed to enrich the imperial core at the expense of subject nations. This wealth pump mechanism, though varying in form, consistently concentrates resources in the hands of the dominant power.

• Ancient Egypt's tribute system
• Imperial Spain's exaction of resources
• Modern systems of unbalanced exchange

The illusion of benefits. Imperial rhetoric often claims that the imperial power provides benefits like peace, good government, and trade relations to subject nations. However, these claims are often a smokescreen for the systematic impoverishment of the periphery.

• British claims of bringing railroads and good government to India
• American neoconservative rhetoric about exporting democracy

Follow the flow of wealth. To understand an empire, one must look past the rhetoric and pay attention to the direction in which wealth flows. This reveals the true nature of imperial relationships, which are based on exploitation rather than mutual benefit.

2. America's Unique Imperial History: Three Competing Cultures

The United States of America may be a single political unit but it has never been a single culture or, really, a single country.

Three distinct cultures. The early American colonies developed into three distinct cultural regions: New England (industrial), Tidewater South (plantation), and the Frontier (egalitarian). These cultures shaped different modes of expansion and had conflicting interests.

• New England: Industrial model focused on markets and raw materials
• Tidewater South: Plantation model focused on land and cheap labor
• Frontier: Egalitarian model focused on real estate and self-sufficiency

Competing expansion models. These cultures drove different forms of expansion, leading to internal conflicts and ultimately the Civil War. The North's industrial and farming model eventually prevailed, shaping the nation's westward expansion.

The legacy of division. These cultural fault lines continue to influence American politics and society, making it difficult to achieve a unified national identity and creating ongoing tensions.

3. The Struggle for Empire: Internal Conflicts and External Ambitions

The competing agendas of Northern and Southern human ecologies made that war inevitable.

Internal economic conflicts. The competing economic systems of the North and South led to irreconcilable differences over trade policy, internal improvements, and the expansion of slavery. These conflicts ultimately culminated in the Civil War.

• North: Protective tariffs, internal improvements
• South: Free trade, expansion of plantation system

The end of continental expansion. The end of the Civil War and the settlement of the West brought an end to the era of continental expansion, forcing the United States to look overseas for new opportunities.

The rise of the pro-empire faction. The economic crises of the late 19th century, particularly the Long Depression, fueled the rise of a pro-empire faction that sought overseas markets and resources to sustain the industrial economy.

4. The Fateful Fusion: Overseas Empire and the Empire of Time

The specific form taken by those relationships, however, unfolds from the unusually complex history of America’s empire, and the equally complex history of the language we use to talk about empires and other political arrangements in today’s world.

Two parallel empires. The United States developed two parallel empires: an overseas empire of space and an internal "empire of time" based on the exploitation of fossil fuels. Both empires functioned as wealth pumps, extracting resources for the benefit of the imperial core.

• Overseas empire: Extraction of wealth from subject nations
• Empire of time: Extraction of cheap energy from the past

The fusion of empires. The development of petroleum-powered technologies in the late 19th century fused these two empires, transforming the United States into a global superpower.

The limits of both empires. Both empires are based on the exploitation of nonrenewable resources, and are thus subject to the same laws of diminishing returns and eventual collapse.

5. The Twilight of American Democracy: A Cycle of Decline

In every democracy, finally, competing circles of officials, officers, and influential people emerge; these expand their power until the democratic system freezes into gridlock under the pressure of factionalism or unsolved crisis.

Anacyclosis in America. American history has seen a recurring cycle of government: dictatorship, junta, democracy, and back to dictatorship. This cycle, known as anacyclosis, is driven by the inherent instability of power structures.

• Dictators: Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelt
• Juntas: Whigs, Republicans, New Deal Democrats
• Democracies: Jacksonian populism, Progressive movement, the Sixties

The current crisis. The current cycle is marked by a growing contempt for democratic institutions and a dangerous focus on personality over policy. The system is frozen in gridlock, and a major crisis is looming.

Diffusion of power. Despite the rhetoric of centralized power, the American political system is characterized by a diffusion of power among competing veto groups, making it difficult to enact meaningful change.

6. Economic Unraveling: The Limits of Growth and the End of Abundance

The wealth pump had been running too hard for too long, stripping wealth from existing colonies, and the expansion of British economic interests into central Europe couldn’t make up the difference because the war had very nearly bled central Europe dry.

The end of the wealth pump. The American economy has become dependent on an imperial wealth pump that is now faltering. This will lead to a decline in living standards and a contraction of the economy.

The limits of fossil fuels. The depletion of fossil fuels, particularly petroleum, is creating a second crisis, as the cost of energy rises and the ability to maintain industrial production declines.

• Peak oil and the decline of conventional petroleum
• The failure of renewable energy to replace fossil fuels

Overproduction and economic crisis. The industrial system's tendency to concentrate wealth in the hands of a few leads to overproduction, as the majority of the population cannot afford to buy the goods being produced. This creates a cycle of economic contraction.

7. The Specter of Military Defeat: A Vulnerable Superpower

The short version is that banks in Britain, Spain and France loaned large sums of money to the government of Mexico, which then fell on hard times... and had to suspend payment on its debts.

The dangers of success. A string of victories can lead to complacency and a failure to adapt to changing military realities. The British Empire's overreliance on battleships and the US military's focus on high-tech gizmos are examples of this.

The new way of war. The rise of petroleum-powered warfare has redefined the nature of conflict, favoring mobility and asymmetric tactics over traditional massed forces. The US military has failed to fully adapt to this new reality.

• Sherman's strategy in the Civil War
• German blitzkrieg in World War II
• Japanese naval air power in World War II

The limits of technology. The US military's reliance on complex and expensive technologies has created vulnerabilities that can be exploited by less technologically advanced adversaries.

8. The Fragility of Client States: Israel and the Post-American World

The British Empire ended in the early 1940s when the United States conquered and occupied Britain.

The dependence of client states. Client states like Israel depend on the support of their imperial patrons for their survival. As the American empire declines, these client states will become increasingly vulnerable.

The end of American support. The loss of American financial and military aid will leave Israel in a precarious position, surrounded by hostile neighbors and lacking the resources to maintain its current military dominance.

The limits of nuclear deterrence. While nuclear weapons can deter large-scale attacks, they cannot guarantee the survival of a small, vulnerable state like Israel in the face of a determined enemy.

9. The Looming Border Crisis: Irredentism and the Failure of Settlement

The settlement of the rest of the continent followed promptly, and it followed the Northern pattern.

The failure of settlement. The American settlement of the dryland West has proven unsustainable, leading to the emergence of ghost towns and a demographic shift toward Mexican culture.

Irredentist claims. The loss of territory in the Mexican War has created a lasting sense of resentment in Mexico, which could fuel future conflicts as the US empire declines.

The rise of warband culture. The breakdown of social order along the border is creating a breeding ground for warbands, which will likely become a major source of instability in the future.

10. Reclaiming Democracy: Local Control and the Power of Associations

The displacement of religion by secular ideologies in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries left all three of these basic political viewpoints in place, but levered them neatly off their theological foundations, leaving their adherents scrambling to find new justifications.

The need for grassroots organization. The revival of democracy requires a return to grassroots political organization, where citizens can have a direct influence on the decisions that affect their lives.

The importance of civic skills. The skills of thinking, dialectic, and rhetoric are essential for effective democratic participation. These skills have been lost in contemporary American society and need to be recovered.

The power of voluntary associations. The formation of voluntary associations for mutual aid and community improvement is a crucial step toward building a more resilient and self-reliant society.

11. Facing a Hard Future: The Need for Resilience and Adaptation

The need to sidestep this habit makes it urgent to get past the currently popular custom of using terms like “Empire” as snarl words, and recover their actual meaning as descriptions of specific forms of human political, economic, and social interaction.

The end of abundance. The end of American empire means the end of the era of cheap energy and abundant resources. Americans will have to adapt to a more modest standard of living.

The need for resilience. The future will require a focus on resilience, self-reliance, and the ability to adapt to changing circumstances. This includes developing practical skills and building strong local communities.

The importance of local control. The devolution of power to local communities and the revival of local single-purpose governmental bodies will be essential for managing the challenges of a post-imperial world.

Last updated: January 22, 2025