A New Foreign Policy

1. American Exceptionalism: A Dangerous Anachronism

In this book, I will argue that American exceptionalism is profoundly and dangerously anachronistic.

Outdated Mindset. American exceptionalism, the belief that the U.S. is uniquely virtuous and entitled to global dominance, is no longer viable in the 21st century. This mindset, rooted in a history of military triumphs and economic superiority, fails to recognize the changing global landscape and America's diminished relative power.

Shared Challenges. The world faces shared challenges like climate change, pandemics, and inequality that require global cooperation, not unilateral action. America's exceptionalist mindset hinders its ability to effectively address these issues.

Limited Power. The U.S. lacks the economic, military, and technological dominance to impose its will on the world. Recent military interventions have led to disasters, not victories, demonstrating the limits of American power.

2. The U.S. as a Reluctant Empire: Wars of Choice

Part of the exceptionalist tradition has been to find divine purpose in war—to place “America’s faith in the institution of war as a divine instrument and sacred mandate to be exercised around the world.”

Imperialism in Disguise. The U.S. has a long history of interventionism, often cloaked in the language of liberation or defense against communism. These "wars of choice," driven by a desire to impose U.S. interests, have led to instability and resentment.

Regime Change Addiction. A key instrument of U.S. foreign policy has been regime change, often through covert CIA operations. These interventions, while sometimes achieving short-term goals, have frequently resulted in long-term chaos and anti-American sentiment.

Consequences of Intervention. The U.S. has been almost continuously at war since 1945, with devastating consequences for both the targeted regions and the U.S. itself. These wars have cost trillions of dollars, damaged America's reputation, and failed to achieve their stated political objectives.

3. Global Convergence: The End of North Atlantic Dominance

Our generation is at a cusp of history, in which centuries of European (and later American) global ascendancy are now being counterbalanced by the rise of “native populations” in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas.

Shifting Power Dynamics. The world is undergoing a period of global convergence, with the rise of Asia, particularly China, challenging the long-standing dominance of the North Atlantic region. This shift requires a rethinking of U.S. foreign policy.

Economic Transformation. China's economic growth has been remarkable, transforming it from a relatively minor player to a global economic powerhouse. This rise has significant implications for the balance of power and the future of the world economy.

Technological Diffusion. The rapid spread of technology is empowering nations around the world, diminishing America's relative advantage. The U.S. must adapt to a multipolar world where no single country dominates.

4. Eurasia Rising: A New World Order

As an indication of America’s waning “exceptionalism,” the world’s biggest geopolitical trend today has nothing to do with the United States.

Eurasian Integration. The economic integration of Europe and Asia, particularly the European Union and China, is a major geopolitical trend that the U.S. is largely absent from. This integration, driven by China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative, has the potential to reshape the global economy.

Missed Opportunities. The U.S.'s protectionist policies and strained relationships with key players are pushing Europe and Asia closer together, leaving the U.S. on the sidelines. This isolation could have long-term consequences for American influence and prosperity.

New Infrastructure. China is actively building long-distance transport, communications, and energy infrastructure links with other parts of Asia and between Asia and Europe, in the same way that the United States once supported Europe’s and Japan’s infrastructure development after World War II in order to foster export markets and production sites for American companies.

5. Russia-U.S. Relations: From Détente to Cold War

I believe that we should not give up on that brighter vision.

Lost Opportunities. The post-Soviet era presented an opportunity for a unified, peaceful Europe, but U.S. policies, such as NATO expansion, have contributed to a renewed Cold War with Russia. This has led to a dangerous cycle of escalation and mistrust.

Security Dilemma. Actions perceived as defensive by one country are often seen as offensive by the other, leading to a "security dilemma" that fuels conflict. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for de-escalating tensions.

Path to Cooperation. A return to Gorbachev's vision of a common European home, with economic cooperation and demilitarization, is still possible. This would require recognizing Russia's legitimate security concerns and pursuing diplomatic solutions.

6. The Illusion of Military Solutions in the Middle East

There is one overriding lesson from all these proxy wars: No superpower wins, but the locals inevitably lose, and lose badly.

Failed Interventions. U.S. military interventions in the Middle East have consistently failed to achieve their political objectives, leading to chaos, instability, and the rise of extremist groups. These interventions have been driven by a variety of motives, including oil interests, support for Israel, and opposition to Iranian influence.

Unintended Consequences. The U.S. military presence in the Middle East has become a recruiting tool for terrorist organizations. The cycle of violence and intervention has created a self-perpetuating conflict.

Need for Withdrawal. The U.S. should withdraw its military forces from the Middle East and allow the regional powers to resolve their own conflicts. Diplomacy and political solutions, not military force, are the key to long-term stability.

7. The Perilous Standoff with North Korea

To call the world’s nuclear situation dire is to understate the danger and its immediacy.

Existential Threat. The escalating tensions with North Korea, fueled by its nuclear weapons program and the Trump administration's rhetoric, pose an existential threat to global security. Miscalculation or escalation could lead to nuclear war.

Security Concerns. North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons is driven by a fear of U.S.-led regime change. Addressing these security concerns through diplomacy and security guarantees is essential for de-escalation.

Diplomacy is Key. The U.S. should pursue a strategy of "accept and deter," recognizing North Korea's nuclear capability while maintaining a strong deterrent. Negotiations and trust-building are crucial for creating the conditions for eventual denuclearization.

8. Trump's Economic Populism: A Mirage

Trump’s economic populism has some important distinctive elements.

Populism for the Elite. Trump's economic policies, while framed as populist, primarily benefit the wealthy and corporations. Tax cuts favor the rich, while working-class voters are left behind.

Scapegoating Foreigners. Trump's economic populism relies on blaming foreigners for America's economic woes. This deflects attention from the real causes of inequality, such as the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of the elite.

Unsustainable Policies. Trump's policies, including tax cuts and increased military spending, are fiscally unsustainable and will lead to a soaring budget deficit. This will burden future generations and undermine America's long-term economic prospects.

9. The Self-Defeating Nature of Protectionism

Trump’s misunderstanding is primitive, as he interprets America’s trade deficit with these countries as proof that these countries are subjecting the United States to unfair trade practices.

Trade Deficit Misunderstanding. Trump's belief that America's trade deficit is a sign of unfair trade practices is economically illiterate. The trade deficit is primarily a result of America's low saving rate, not foreign manipulation.

Trade War Risks. Trump's protectionist policies, such as tariffs on imports, could trigger a trade war that would harm the U.S. and global economies. These policies would raise costs for consumers, disrupt supply chains, and reduce overall economic growth.

Focus on Domestic Solutions. Instead of protectionism, the U.S. should focus on domestic policies to address inequality and improve competitiveness. This includes investing in education, infrastructure, and research and development.

10. The Power of Sustainable Development

The exceptionalist mindset is especially dangerous today.

Global Cooperation. The challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change, poverty, and inequality, require global cooperation and a commitment to sustainable development. The SDGs provide a framework for addressing these challenges.

Triple Bottom Line. Sustainable development requires balancing economic growth with social inclusion and environmental sustainability. The U.S. has fallen behind in these areas, leading to declining well-being and increased social divisions.

Investment in the Future. Achieving sustainable development requires investing in education, health, renewable energy, and other areas that promote long-term prosperity. This requires a shift away from short-term thinking and a commitment to the well-being of future generations.

11. Renewing American Diplomacy: A Path to Peace

Our strength lies in our diversity and our ability to connect with all parts of the world in a cooperative spirit.

Return to Internationalism. The U.S. should abandon its exceptionalist mindset and embrace a foreign policy based on diplomacy, cooperation, and respect for international law. This would require a renewed commitment to the United Nations and other multilateral institutions.

Prioritize Diplomacy. The U.S. should prioritize diplomacy over military force in resolving international conflicts. This includes engaging in dialogue with adversaries and seeking common ground on shared challenges.

Embrace Diversity. America's strength lies in its diversity and its ability to connect with all parts of the world in a cooperative spirit. A new foreign policy should reflect these values and promote a more just and peaceful world.

Last updated: March 8, 2025